FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK — AUGUST 2026 Central Bank Decisions • Economic Indicators • Currency Pair Analysis • Forecasts
OUTLOOK: August 2026 forex market outlook. Central bank decisions, economic data releases, and technical analysis for major currency pairs. The USD is showing weakness while commodity currencies strengthen on risk-on sentiment.CENTRAL BANK CALENDAR — AUGUST 2026
| Date | Central Bank | Decision | Current Rate | Expected | Impact |
| Aug 3 | RBA (Australia) | Rate decision | 4.35% | Hold 4.35% | AUD volatile |
| Aug 4 | BOJ (Japan) | Rate decision + outlook | 0.50% | Hold 0.50% | JPY weak bias |
| Aug 8 | RBNZ (New Zealand) | Rate decision | 5.50% | Cut to 5.25% | NZD bearish |
| Aug 15 | Norges Bank | Rate decision | 4.50% | Hold 4.50% | NOK stable |
| Aug 22 | Federal Reserve | FOMC minutes | 5.50% | Hold 5.50% | USD direction |
| Aug 29 | ECB | Rate decision | 4.00% | Cut to 3.75% | EUR bearish |
| Aug 30 | BOE | Rate decision | 5.25% | Cut to 5.00% | GBP bearish |
MAJOR PAIRS ANALYSIS
Code:
EUR/USD — BULLISH (Short-term)
Current: 1.0850
Support: 1.0800 (50-DMA), 1.0750 (200-DMA)
Resistance: 1.0900, 1.0950, 1.1000 (psychological)
Outlook: EUR strengthening as ECB expected to hold rates
US economic data slowing (GDP, employment)
Divergence trade: long EUR/USD into August
Target: 1.1000 (August expiry)
Risk: ECB surprises with rate cut → drop to 1.0700
GBP/USD — MODERATELY BULLISH
Current: 1.2870
Support: 1.2800, 1.2750 (100-DMA)
Resistance: 1.2950, 1.3000 (psychological), 1.3100
Outlook: BOE expected to hold in August
UK services sector strong (PMI 54.2)
Inflation sticky at 3.2% (above 2% target)
Cable benefiting from weak USD
Target: 1.3100 (medium-term)
Risk: BOE rate cut → drop to 1.2600
USD/JPY — BEARISH
Current: 153.50
Support: 153.00, 152.00, 151.00
Resistance: 154.00, 155.00, 156.00
Outlook: JPY strengthening on BOJ intervention threat
Carry trade unwinding
US yields declining (10Y at 4.10%)
Target: 150.00 (medium-term)
Risk: BOJ no action → USD/JPY back to 155+
Note: Most volatile pair — tight stops essential
AUD/USD — BULLISH
Current: 0.6540
Support: 0.6500, 0.6450 (200-DMA)
Resistance: 0.6600, 0.6650, 0.6700
Outlook: RBA hawkish (no cuts expected)
Iron ore prices rallying ( +12% this month)
China stimulus boosting risk sentiment
Target: 0.6700 (August)
Risk: RBA dovish surprise → drop to 0.6400TRADE SETUPS FOR AUGUST
Code:
1. Long EUR/USD
Entry: 1.0830-1.0850
Stop: 1.0780
TP1: 1.0920
TP2: 1.0980
TP3: 1.1050
Rationale: USD weakness + ECB hold
Risk: 1.0R | Reward: 3.5R
2. Short USD/JPY
Entry: 154.00-154.50
Stop: 155.50
TP1: 152.50
TP2: 151.00
TP3: 149.50
Rationale: Intervention risk + yield differential closing
Risk: 1.0R | Reward: 3.0R
3. Long AUD/USD
Entry: 0.6500-0.6520
Stop: 0.6470
TP1: 0.6580
TP2: 0.6650
TP3: 0.6720
Rationale: RBA hawkish + commodity rally
Risk: 1.0R | Reward: 4.0R
4. Short GBP/JPY (cross pair)
Entry: 198.00-198.50
Stop: 200.00
TP1: 196.00
TP2: 194.00
TP3: 192.00
Rationale: UK slowdown + JPY safe haven
Risk: 1.0R | Reward: 3.0R
All trades: 2% risk per trade, use stops, take partials at TP1